Laws and regulations express

企业可以建立几个跨部门工作团队,针对每一种预测进行研究分析和评估,权衡它们各自的好处和风险。

同时,Tomorrow Today Global的TIDES of Change模型关注着五个领域的潜在冲突:技术、制度、人口、环境与伦理、社会价值观。冯·里乌文建议各企业召开季度会议,对上述五个领域的最新进展进行讨论。同时提醒企业不要将对未来的规划定位为一个特定的事件,而应当做一个随着时间和事件的发展需要长期思考的问题。


切合实际的规划

既然事事关注并不现实,作为一名企业领导人,要从务实的角度出发,重点关注与企业自身发展切实相关的要素。从实用性角度出发,斯图尔特建议企业应当全面关注那些会在短期、中期和长期对他们产生影响的趋势,并确定应当采取哪些行动才能有效利用趋势,规避风险。

企业的短利主义文化就是一个明显的风险。冯·里乌文指出:“许多企业不会奖励那些思考未来、对长期趋势具有远见的员工。要是得不到任何奖励,谁还会去思考呢?要想让企业能够赢在未来,我们就需要重新思考如何激励员工。”


准确完善的能力

大多数企业领导人面临的挑战在于,如何平衡日常事务和规划未来之间的精力,并确保其具备规划未来的能力。斯图尔特和冯·里乌文表示,能够有效规划未来的企业领导人通常对于更广阔的外部环境保持着与生俱来的好奇心。因而,他们擅长提出意义深远、富有智慧的问题,令他人心悦诚服。

“若想做到这一点,就需要与各行各业的内部和外部人士保持密切协作,从而避免将企业的发展路径局限于某一个特定方向。”斯图尔特说。

实际上,企业进行未来规划并非如看起来那么复杂。启动规划时,领导人仅需对宏观趋势的发展具备一般性了解,而对于与企业关系紧密的趋势保持密切关注即可。此外,如果企业希望从容地应对未来,还需实行结构化流程,从而有效利用趋势,尽量规避风险。

 

G

Predicting the future need not be a stab in the dark. There are plenty of practical steps businesses can take to prepare for the challenges ahead

If all companies could employ Bill Gates, predicting future trends would no longer be a challenge. In 1987, looking ahead 20 years, he told journalists: “The dream of having a world database at your fingertips will have become a reality… Also, we will have serious voice recognition.”

Today, two words come to mind: Wikipedia and Siri.

But without a Bill Gates of their own, how can mid-market businesses predict and plan for the future?

What businesses can do

The CIPD, the professional body for HR and people development with more than 140,000 members worldwide, spends a significant amount of time identifying future trends and how they will affect the workplace. Its lead consultant of strategic projects, Ruth Stuart, says there is plenty that business leaders can do to stay ahead of the game.

She explains: “It’s helpful to have an understanding of the big, contextual drivers of change but then it’s about bringing that into your organisation and saying, if we know this is happening in the broader world of work, what does that mean for us as a business?”

A good starting point is to have a clear understanding of your organisation’s vision, strategy, strengths and weaknesses, says Dean van Leeuwen, futurist, keynote speaker and co-founder of TomorrowToday Global, an international consultancy that helps businesses effectively plan for the future.

Then it’s a case of 'joining the dots' between your current position and likely future scenarios. It’s an exercise that can often reveal the gaps between where you are now and where you want to be.

Involve everyone

There is real value in getting the entire organisation to participate in future planning because today’s workforce is very tuned in to some of the big changes, particularly technology-related, that are taking place.

As workplace futurists predict multiple trends on the horizon, Stuart suggests setting up several working groups across a business to look at individual predictions, weighing up their respective benefits and risks.

TomorrowToday Global’s TIDES of Change model looks at five areas of potential disruption: technology, institutions, demography, the environment and ethics, and social values. Van Leeuwen suggests quarterly discussions about the latest developments in each of these five areasBut he warns against making future planning a specific event in the diary. It is, he says, something that you need to be thinking about on an ongoing basis.

Practical planning

It’s impossible to cover everything, however. Businesses need to be pragmatic and focus on what’s really relevant to them. At a practical level, Stuart advises companies to consider how relevant trends will affect them in the near, medium and long term, and identify the actions needed to capitalise on the trends but also to mitigate their risks.

One obvious risk is the corporate culture of short-termism. Van Leeuwen points out: “Many organisations do not reward long-term thinking and if you’re not rewarded to think about the future, why do it? The way we reward and encourage people needs to be rethought if we want organisations that are future-fit.”

The right skills

The challenge for most business leaders is striking the right balance between time spent operating today and planning for tomorrow, and ensuring they have the right skills to be future-focused.

Stuart and Van Leeuwen say leaders who are effective at planning for the future have a natural curiosity for the wider external environment. As a result, they are good at asking meaningful, intelligent questions that help to shift people’s perspectives.

“Connected to that is having a really strong internal and external network of people with a diversity of backgrounds so that you’re not pigeonholing your organisation into going in a particular direction,” says Stuart.

Planning for the future need not be as overwhelming as it might seem at first. Having a general awareness of macro predictions and focusing in on those most relevant to you is a good start. But businesses also need to implement structured processes to capitalise on relevant trends and mitigate their risks if they want to be well-placed to tackle the future with confidence.

   

预测未来不必再盲人摸象。有很多实用的举措可以帮企业为未来的挑战做好应对准备。Predicting the future need not be a stab in the dark. There are plenty of practical steps businesses can take to prepare for the challenges ahead企业如何规划未来全面开展业务合作在英企业增长迅速国企业新三板挂牌审计机构十强”会议How to plan for the futureup plans to develop cooperation with Grant Thornton internal control review process for New Third Board Listed Companiesng fir